When I heard the news of his passing the first thing I remembered were the two stories from Partha that made lasting impact on me.

The story of a Mumbai Entrepreneur

A famous sculptor was once asked how to sculpt an elephant from a stone block. He said that it is very simple. All you have to do is remove from the stone block whatever is not the elephant and what remains is an elephant. Opportunities in life are like stone blocks, we should have an eye to spot the elephant in them.

This is a true life story of Ram who came to Mumbai in search of a job. He waited everyday outside a famous factory hoping to be recruited. As he came there every day, he realized that other job seekers were much more qualified than him. The chances of him getting the job were very slim. He also noticed that these job seeks waited for hours together outside the factory. So, He started selling peanuts outside the factory. Soon he made brisk business. Now he owns a hotel opposite to the factory.

The stone block of opportunity was there for all the 200 job seekers who waited outside the factory. Only Ram could spot the elephant.

David and Goliath – Retold

All of us have heard the story of David and Goliath. The little boy David who defeated the giant Goliath, where mighty warriors failed. Why do you think David succeeded; because he thought he could. All the warriors thought “He is so huge, how can we defeat him”. David thought “He is so big, how can I miss him”.

In life, the circumstances are pretty much the same, the difference lies in the perspective

The fact that I remember these stories after more than 20 years of reading them is a tribute to Uncle Pai and the power of his stories. May he rest in peace.

 Learning From Numbers To Generate New Kowledge- Part 1

2. Role of statistics in different activities                      

Statistics is not a subject like physics, chemistry or biology. A physicist solves a problem in physics using his knowledge of physics. A chemist solves a problem in chemistry using his knowledge of chemistry, and so on. But there is no problem in statistics which we solve by using our knowledge of statistics. Essentially a statistician helps in solving problems posed by others arising in their fields of study. All investigations in science or other activities start with formulating a problem, generating relevant data, processing it, and extracting information to throw light on the problem posed. All these need special skills which a statistician is trained to do.

2.1 Scientific research

            “Scientific laws are not advanced by the principle of authority or justified by

             faith or medieval philosophy; statistics is the only court of appeal to new

             knowledge.”

                                                                                    -  P.C.Mahalanobis

A scientist proposes a theory to explain some natural phenomenon. An experiment is needed to verify the theory. How to design an experiment to get the maximum information from the data generated to estimate the accuracy of the theory. If the accuracy is not within acceptable limits, can the data generated from the experiment enable us to suggest improvements in the proposed theory or to propose a new theory. The new theory can be tested by further experimentation. These problems can be answered with statistical help using design of experiments developed by R.A.Fisher. Emphazing the need for consulting a statistician before the experiment is conducted, Fisher said:

     “You get 10 times more information from a carefully designed experiment. To consult a

         statistician after the experiment is finished is often to merely ask him to conduct a

         postmortem examination. He can only say what the experiment died of”.

Through collection of relevant data by optimally designed experiments and appropriate data analysis to test hypotheses based on the proposed theory and to provide clues for improvement of the theory or for possible alternatives, statistics enables the scientist to have a full play for his creative imagination to discover new phenomena or suggest improvements in the proposed theory.  Science advances through the following endless process:

   -Theory-Experiment –Statistical assessment of experimental results- New theory-

2.2 Statistics as an investigative technology

“Statistics is the technology of finding the invisible and measuring the immeasurable”.

2.2.1 Measure the immeasurable

For instance narcissism, a personality disorder, is hard to measure. However, we can measure a large number of other characteristics of a person which are affected by this disorder. Statistical methodology enables us to connect the measure of narcissism, as a latent variable, to the measurable characteristics through a structural equation model, and estimate it.

2.2.2 Classification or discrimination

There was a policy in US military that while recruiting a person to the army, “ask not and do not answer” about the homosexuality of the person. However, a sample of urine of the person can be obtained and tested for the amounts of androgen and estrogen. It is seen from the two dimensional chart of the measurements obtained from  sets of individuals whose sexual orientation was known, that the homo and heterosexual persons are in 2 different regions, separated by a line, apart from a few exceptions. By plotting the point for any particular individual, his sexual orientation can be inferred with a high degree of success based on the region in which his measurements fall.

This method known as discriminant analysis in statistics, developed by R.A.Fisher and perfected by various authors, has been a powerful tool in such problems. For instance, the method can be used in problems such as medical diagnosis to determine which out of several possible diseases a patient is suffering from based on a number of diagnostic tests, in detecting whether currency is faked and numerous other situations.

2.3 Birth order and eminence

Scholarly interest in the relationship between birth order and extraordinary achievement can be traced to 1874 when Francis Galton published English Men of Science: Their Nature and Nurture. This book chronicled the lives of 180 eminent men from various fields. Galton was able to collect birth order data from 99 of his subjects, revealing that 48% of them were first born sons or only sons. The percentages of the second and third born were very low. Interest in birth order and  eminence has continued, and countless studies have confirmed Galton’s conclusions that eminence achieved or intelligence of a person depends on his birth order, the fist one being more intelligent than the second, the second more intelligent than the third and so on. The table gives results of intelligent tests conducted on children from families of different sizes, indicating the birth order effect on intelligence.

It would be of interest to investigate the causes of birth order effect. It is believed that the first born gets more parental attention than the later born and has a chance of growing up in the company of adults and learn from them. The second born has similarly more opportunities than the third and so on.

2.4 Common breeding ground of eels.

This is an example to show how learning from numbers led to an important discovery. In the early years of the last century, Johannes Schmidt, a scientist at the Carlsberg Laboratory found that the numbers of vertebrae and fin rays of the same species of fish caught from different localities, often even from different parts of the same lake, varied considerably. With eels, however, in which the variation in vertebrate number is large, Schmidt found sensibly the same mean, and the same standard deviation in samples drawn from all over Europe, from Iceland, from the Azores and from the Nile river, which are widely separated regions, about 1000 miles apart. He inferred that the eels of all these different river systems came from a common breeding-ground in the ocean, which was discovered 50 years later in one of the expeditions of the research vessel “Dana”. Statistical theory was unknown when Schmidt made this discovery. Simple computations of the mean and standard deviation were the only tools used.

 2.5 Mournful numbers

We are continuously made aware of, through news papers, magazines and other news media, the good and deleterious effects of our dietary, exercise, smoking and drinking habits, and the stress in our profession and other daily activities. The following table gives the information on the number of days lost or gained in one’s life due to various causes. The numbers may not be appropriate for specific individuals. However, they provide useful guidelines in making individual decisions.

2.6 The importance of being left handed

T.A.Davis, a professor at the Indian Statistical Institute made several studies on coconut trees which can be classified as left-handed or right- handed depending on the direction of its foliar spiral. By doing experiments he found that spirality is not genetically inherited and left handed trees yield 10% more coconuts than the right handed trees, a conclusion of economic importance. A recommendation was made to the Government in the state of Kerala to grow only the ” leftists to increase the production of nuts”.

2.7 Chronobiology and appropriate time to take Vitamin C

Chronobiology is the study of changes in body chemistry during the day. Measurements made on the human body at different times of the day reveal some interesting facts. We are 1 cm taller in the morning than at the time we go to bed. The cortisol level is about 16mg/100 in the morning and it drops to 6mg/100 at bed time. The high cartisol level in the morning wakes you up and you are more alert. Teachers want to teach in the morning because students are more attentive in the morning due to high cartisol level. It was found that vitamin C is better absorbed if taken after a meal.

The examples given above show how numbers generated through experiments or generated through normal transactions provide us with knowledge or information to take optimal decisions in all our activities.

2.8 Facts before theory

       “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to

       twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts.

-          Sherlock Holms

    Without good information, you won’t see things as they really are-you will see them         

    as you think they are.

           “Aristotle maintained that women have fewer teeth than men; although he was

            married twice, it never occurred to him to verify his statement by examining his

            wives ’mouth”.

-           Bertrand Russel

2.9 Computational stylistics

The total number of words in all the known works of Shakespeare is 884647 of which 31534 are distinct. Using a statistical method proposed by R.A.Fisher, it is estimated that Shakespeare probably knew about 35000 more words which he did not use in his writings. The total number of words Shakespeare knew is about 66000 out of about 100000 words in the English language in his time. The question arises whether Shakespeare wrote all the plays attributed to him or he had co-authors. Statistical methods, known as computational stylistics, provides answers to questions of this kind. Comparing the styles in terms of rhetorical devices, polysyllabic words and metrical habits, the following possibilities have been mentioned in the   book ”Shakespeare, Co-Author”, by Brian Vickers.

Ceorge Peele wrote a third of Titus Andronicus, Thomas Middleton, two-fifths of Timon of Athens, George Wilkins, two of the five acts of Pericles and John Fletcher, more than half of Henry VIII and The two Noble Kinsmen. 

2.7 Chronobiology and appropriate time to take Vitamin C

Chronobiology is the study of changes in body chemistry during the day. Measurements made on the human body at different times of the day reveal some interesting facts. We are 1 cm taller in the morning than at the time we go to bed. The cortisol level is about 16mg/100 in the morning and it drops to 6mg/100 at bed time. The high cartisol level in the morning wakes you up and you are more alert. Teachers want to teach in the morning because students are more attentive in the morning due to high cartisol level. It was found that vitamin C is better absorbed if taken after a meal.

The examples given above show how numbers generated through experiments or generated through normal transactions provide us with knowledge or information to take optimal decisions in all our activities.

2.8 Facts before theory

       “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly, one begins to

       twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts.

-          Sherlock Holms

    Without good information, you won’t see things as they really are-you will see them         

    as you think they are.

           “Aristotle maintained that women have fewer teeth than men; although he was

            married twice, it never occurred to him to verify his statement by examining his

            wives ’mouth”.

-           Bertrand Russel

2.9 Computational stylistics

The total number of words in all the known works of Shakespeare is 884647 of which 31534 are distinct. Using a statistical method proposed by R.A.Fisher, it is estimated that Shakespeare probably knew about 35000 more words which he did not use in his writings. The total number of words Shakespeare knew is about 66000 out of about 100000 words in the English language in his time. The question arises whether Shakespeare wrote all the plays attributed to him or he had co-authors. Statistical methods, known as computational stylistics, provides answers to questions of this kind. Comparing the styles in terms of rhetorical devices, polysyllabic words and metrical habits, the following possibilities have been mentioned in the   book ”Shakespeare, Co-Author”, by Brian Vickers.

Ceorge Peele wrote a third of Titus Andronicus, Thomas Middleton, two-fifths of Timon of Athens, George Wilkins, two of the five acts of Pericles and John Fletcher, more than half of Henry VIII and The two Noble Kinsmen.

End of Part 2

Will be posting the concluding part of the lecture in my nest post – Archana

The difference between the Philosophers, Scientists and Statisticians view of knowledge

Statistics is the science, technology and art of developing human knowledge through the use of empirical data.

 1 Concepts of Knowledge

 Knowledge is what we know, also what we know we do not know. We discover what we do not know essentially by what we know. Thus knowledge expands. With more knowledge we come to know more of what we do not know. Thus knowledge expands endlessly. What exactly is the process involved in generating new knowledge? What confidence do we have in the newly created knowledge and how do we use it. In order to understand these problems let us look at different views of knowledge.

 1.1.         Philosopher’s view of knowledge

 Philosophers maintain that knowledge is infallible. The different instruments for acquiring certain knowledge are:

• Deductive logic or pure reasoning from given premises as advocated by Kant.

The process is the same as that in mathematics, where we lay down certain axioms taken to be true and derive propositions by arguing from them. However, we have to make sure that conclusions drawn from different sets of axioms are not contradictory. The logician Godel proved that consistency of a given set of axioms cannot be established by using the same axioms. He also showed if one contradiction occurs, any contradiction can be established.

• Mill’s inductive logic of reasoning from particular to particular. For example if it is known that in the past, banks refused to give loans if the applicant had filed for insolvency at any time, we conclude that the same will hold in the future. Byinduction, we generally mean arguing from the particular to the general.
• The Indian Philosopher Vivekananda and Einstein maintained that new knowledge can be created only by instinct, reason and inspiration, a process known as abduction and not by deductive reasoning assuming a given set of premises to be true or by inductive inference from observed data. ( “a theory can be proved by an experiment, but no path leads  from experiment to theory”-Einstein).
• The ancient Hindu scriptures mention, perception (pratyksha), inference(anumana), comparison (upamana) and verbal testimony (sabda) as possible instruments for creation of new knowledge.

 1.2 Scientist’s view of knowledge

 Scientists maintain that all knowledge is fallible, i.e., there is nothing like a true knowledge. They create scientific knowledge by the following steps.

 (1)   Build a model for observed data using the information contained in the data or through instinct, reason and inspiration.

(2)   Then generate new data through an experiment or taking observations in nature and see how well the suggested model can predict the observed data.

(3)   If the accuracy of prediction is within acceptable limits for practical applications, the model is given the status of a scientific theory. If not the model is rejected. In either case, research will continue to find a theory which gives   predictions with a higher degree of accuracy. Each time, we replace the existing theory by the new one.

(4)   Sometimes more than one theory can co-exist as Newton’s laws of gravitation and Einstein’s theory of relativity although the latter is more comprehensive than the former. For practical purposes, even sending a man to the moon, Newton’s laws of motion can provide results of sufficient accuracy. Neither of them is strictly true as the following famous scientists affirm.

 1.2.1 Views of some scientists on scientific theories:

  “An experiment does not even establish the relative truth or falsity of a hypothesis but merely furnishes a basis for deciding acceptability”.

                                                -A.H.Copeland (Philosophy of Science, 33,303-316, 1966)

“If you thought that science was certain well that is just an error on your part”.

                                                      -Richard Feynman (Nobel Laureate)

       “In science, fact can only mean confirmed to such a degree that it would be  perverse to withhold provisional assent”

                                                       -Stephen Jay Gould

      “There has not been a single data in the history of the law of gravitation when a      modern test of significance would not have rejected all laws and left us with no   laws”                                       -H.Jeffreys (in The Theory of probability)

       “There is no need for these hypotheses to be true or even to be at all like the truth; rather one thing is sufficient for them-that they should yield calculations which agree with the observations”

                       -Andreas Osiander (1498-1552) in preface to Copernicus De Revolutionibus

 1.2.2 The sad story of Galileo (15 Feb 1564-8 Jan 1642) and the Catholic Church

During the life time of Galileo a large majority of philosophers and astronomers subscribed to the geocentric view that the earth is at the centre of the universe.  When Galileo began publicly supporting the heliocentric view, which placed the sun at the centre of the universe, he met with bitter opposition from some philosophers and clerics, and two of the latter eventually denounced him to the Roman Inquisition early in 1615.

The position of the church as explained by Cardinal Bellarmino in 1615 was similar to what Osiander thought a century earlier that the church would raise no objection if Galileo stated his theory as a mathematical hypothesis, “invented and assumed in order to abbreviate and ease the calculations”, provided he did not claim it to be a true description of the world. In 1916 Galileo agreed not to advocate his views and  he was cleared of any offence. When he later defended his views in his most famous work, Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief World Systems, published in 1632, he was tried by the Inquisition, found “vehemently suspect of heresy”, forced to recant, and spend the rest of his life under house arrest.

   1.3 Statistical view of knowledge

   All knowledge derived from observed data is uncertain with the degree of uncertainty depending on the amount and quality of available data. Unlike in science, in real life action has to be taken on available knowledge however meager or uncertain it is. We are always seeking answers to questions like: What career should I choose? How do I invest my money? Should I go abroad for higher studies or continue in the country? Should I take drug A or B for my headache? There are no definite answers to these questions in view of uncertainties in available information, but decisions cannot be postponed.

To the human mind tuned to deductive logic over several centuries, formulating rules for decision making under uncertainty which can go wrong posed a challenging problem. It is only in the beginning of the last century, it was realized that knowledge, however meager, is usable if we know the amount of uncertainty in it, in the sense that we can formulate optimum decision rules, i.e., with minimum loss, which is the subject matter of statistics developed as a separate discipline in the last century. The fundamental equation of statistics may be stated as follows:

      Uncertain                     Knowledge of                              Usuable

                                    +      of amount of              =       

     Knowledge                  uncertainty in it                            knowledge

   1.3.1 History of statistics

Statistics has a long antiquity but a short history. Its origin can traced back to the primitive man who put notches on trees to keep an account of his possessions. As early as 5000 BC, kings used to carry out census of populations and resources of the state for selfish reasons. When democratic governments were formed, it was the task of the governments to collect information about the people and on the resources of the state to make short term policy decisions and formulate long range plans for improving the living conditions of the people. The information collected by the government was called official statistics (data collected of the people for the people by the government). The word statistics was coined by the German Scholar Achenwal in the middle of the 18^th century to mean data, analysis and use by the government.  The first State Statistical Bureau was established in 1800 in France.

 It is interesting to note that Shakespeare came close to invent the word statistics or statistician. He used the word ‘statist’ in his drama Cymbeline in 1600 and ‘statists’ in plural in Hamlet in 1609 to denote, perhaps, officials connected with the state.

  The first nongovernmental use of statistics is in computing life insurance rates based on the data of births and deaths, called Bills of Mortality, in the 17^th century. During this period analytical studies were made on death rates from different diseases and the growth of populations in different regions of a state. In 1900, Karl Pearson used concepts of probability to test scientific hypotheses based on observed data in any field of enquiry, which is the beginning of the modern theory of statistics. The theory of statistics was developed during the period 1900-1940 by R.A.Fisher, J.Neyman and A.Wald Statistics was introduced as a separate subject of study and research in universities in the decade, 1940-1950.

The second half of the last century saw the development of statistics as the science and technology of using information as the main tool in all areas of human endeavour from scientific research, designing and controlling the quality of goods, medical diagnosis, national security, giving evidence in courts of law in cases such as disputed paternity and authorship, detection of fraud and to making personal decisions. As R.A.Fisher said in a speech delivered at the Indian Statistical Institute in 1952:

       “Statistical science is the peculiar aspect of human progress which gave 20^th      century its special character.   It is to the statistician the present age turns for       what is most essential in all its more important activities”.

 I shall give some examples to show how statistics works in different activities.

Nick Calrke, an editor of a city travel guide, writes on how twitter has enriched his travels. He was at a shopping mall in Copenhagen and tweeted about it. Within minutes he got responses recommending a pastry shop on the ground floor and a better mall close by. A guide book cannot compete with this kind of knowledge being shared by-the minute on social media. This coming from the editor of a city speaks for itself. Also guidebook does not lend itself to social interaction.  A group of friends landed in Brussels without any plans-but after asking their twitter followers, they were invited to a private party and saw in the new year with the locals.  

Foursquare is a networking site for travelers. It has a “check in” system which enables you to tell your friends exactly where you are, using the GPS on the phone. It is not just about what you are doing but where you are doing it. It has a game like feel. You can earn points every time you check in and become mayor of somewhere if you check-in enough number of times. Now Facebook too offers a similar functionality called “Places”.

Other sites making an impact on travel are Tripwolf, TravBuddy and Tripatini-dubbed “Facebook of Travel”. David Appel, founder of Tripatini says, “it is no longer about the writer telling the reader where to go and what to see. It is about sharing knowledge when things happen, using people you are connected with online and pooling resources. Which is why social media for travel shows no sign of reaching its final destination-travelers will always want information and social media sites will always be able to provide it.

A Spanish fashion brand Desigual has launched a campaign that rewards its fans for being kind to online bloggers. Fans can indicate which item from their current line they’d like and wait for the company to alert them to a particular blog post to target with uplifting comments. These are not the company’s own blog but rather their favorites chosen from across the web. The first 100 comments that received a reply from the blogger will receive the clothing item they requested. Being a blogger this campaign truly wowed me. What would I not give to be selected by Desigual.

Barcelona is the hotbed of companies with websites that steer purchases through peer group recommendations and collectively bargained discounts.  It may not seem like a great marketing idea, but venture capital is pouring into “Social Shopping” sector.

As they say “Nothing is more powerful than an idea whose time has come”

PS: You can read few more interesting articles from “There” magazine here

Interestingly JKR too had read the same story and this was exactly the part that resonated with her. She is very grateful for the success of Harry Porter. She will continue to be a writer but does not truly  expect to top it. She says, “people keep asking me, how are you going to do anything bigger than Harry Porter. I don’t even want to try”

JKR says that she is most grateful for her fans and she dedicated her final book to her regular readers. She was once walking down the road and a 20yr old girl came up to her and said, “you are my childhood”. That is the best compliment she has ever received.

Some deep insights on how to deal with enormous success.

Ted was founded 25 years back, yet it gained popularity in the last 5 years, mainly because of Chris Anderson who took over 5 years back. He decided to upload all the talks on the web and make it available for free. People were paying $6000 for attending the event, so this seemed a very counter intuitive move. Yet, it was THE factor which catapulted TED to world fame. Today, there is a 1 year waiting list for TED conferences.

The most interesting speech was by Aravind Kumar, the founder of Clean Credit. His mission is to make India as clean as Switzerland. He has come up with a unique model for making this happen. He piloted this in IIM campus with great success. He got his idea from trolley management process followed in some international airports. You pay a dollar to take the trolley and when you return it the dollar is refunded. His research showed that 90% of the trash is generated from the products of 25 companies. Get these companies to tag their products with a Clean Credit tag and charge 1Rs extra on all products. Upon returning the used packing material, refund the amount to the customer. When this was piloted in IIM, the trashiest place in the campus became clean in 4 days and they could achieve 100% segregation. Through this model we can make every corner shop a trash collection point.

Now, we only have to put pressure on these 25 companies to tag their products. His idea is to employ Gandhigiri 2.0. Take photographs of trash(which predominantly comprises of these companies’ products) and put them on social networking sites. Aravind Kumar is a PHD student in IIM. Many of his classmates are westerns who keep complaining to him about the filth in our cities. He promised them that he will make India as clean as Switzerland.

Here are some inspiration from other speakers.

Major Ravi, an ex-major in the Indian army and a film maker spoke of his journey from a 9^th std dropout to a successful army major and a film maker. His message, “Always take on the most difficult tasks”

Elango, A scientist by profession, went back to his village, Kuthambakkam and transformed it into a model village by engaging the grassroots and employing e-governance. He says,”Youth should lead this country and hence opt for politics as a profession.” In a democracy people should be participants, not just beneficiaries.

Dr.Madhan Marky, a professor in Anna University wanted to be a lyricist. He fulfilled his dream by using software engineering to generate the best possible lyrics for a given tune. He was able to program, such components as uniqueness and pleasantness of the lyrics into his application. The first song that was created using this software was Irumbu Manida from Eindhiran.

I had a thoroughly enjoyable day. A special thanks to Mani and Rajashree for inviting me.

For details on all the speakers at the event refer to http://www.tedxyouthchennai.com

 400 scientists from 40 countries participated in this conference. Prime minister gave a very insightful speech. He recounted his experience of working with the founder of TWAS, Abdus Salam, a Nobel Prize winning physicist from Pakistan. He quoted Sir Winston Churchill who said “Empires of the future would be the empires of the mind”. Since there is a limitation of infrastructure in the developing world, collaboration among all the countries is essential. Science has the capacity to solve most of the pressing problems of our times. We need to put science in a pedestal. Our pedagogical method of teaching emphasizes memory over enquiry and this is not good for scientific progress.

 What I found most interesting in his speech was his mention of open source research platform. He said that the main drawback with scientific research is that the intellectual property rights make it very difficult for sharing and using research findings. Our government is promoting a open source forum where scientists can share their research findings which can be freely reused by other scientists.

I did a quick search on the net and came across “Council of Scientific and Industrial Research” which is using this model to collaboratively develop low cost drugs for diseases. You can read more about their work at “Open Source Drug Discovery Foundation”. I am not sure if this was the forum that the Prime Minister was referring to in his speech.

Some other interesting tit bits from the conference

The chief minister of AP in his speech proudly proclaimed that Hyderabad is a major IT hub with big companies like Microsoft, Oracle, Cognizant having their presence here. I was gratified to hear Cognizant being uttered in the same breath as Microsoft and Oracle

I was sitting next to a Microbiologist from Tunesia. She wanted to know what the Indian nod signified. The way we nod our head to say “yes” is very different from how the rest of the world does it. She actually shook her head and asked me what this means.

There was one chair in the Museum which was kept locked in a glass case. We thought it belonged to a famous prize winner.

It turned out that this chair had the signature of Koichi Tanaka, a Chemistry Noble prize winner from Japan. He was only a salaried engineer with just a bachelor’s degree. He was not a PhD like most other winners. In fact, he is the first recipient of the chemistry prize with only a bachelor’s degree. He is very famous in Japan because of his unlikely achievement. All the tourist from Japan were insisting on sitting on this chair and taking a picture. They were not even interested in Einstein’s chair as much as this one. The chair was showing signs of breaking because of the demand and hence they decided to protect it in a  glass case.

Here are some more picture from the Museum

A brief about all the prize winner till date is hung a clothes line near the entrance of the Museum.

The hand written will of Alfred Nobel.  According to the guide the most revolutionary aspect of the will was the clause that the prize should be awarded without consideration of nationality. At the time it was written, it was very controversial since many swedes felt that Nobel was giving away his wealth to other countries. But it was this very same clause that made the prize so prestigious.

Inscriptions on the floor of the Museum

Me and our guide in front of Nobel’s will

Quotes by Nobel winners on the walls of the Museum

Cows flatulence, belching and manure emit methane which is 25% more potent then CO2.  Cows are responsible for about 50% more greenhouse gas than the entire transportation sector.

Sulphur dioxide in the stratosphere can act as a sunscreen and reduce earth’s temperature. This was observed in 1991 when a powerful volcanic eruption in Mt Pinatubo spewed huge amounts of sulphuric ash in the sky and for two years it reduced the average temperature of the earth by 1F.

CO2 may have little to do with the current global warming. All the heavy particulate pollutants we generated in the past decades cooled the atmosphere by dimming the sun. The trend began to reverse as we started cleaning up our air and global warming may actually be the result of good environmental stewardship.

Ice-cap evidence of past several 100 years shows that carbondioxide levels increased after a rise in temperature and not the other way round.

CO2 is not a very efficient greenhouse gas. If you double the carbondioxide in the atmosphere it will only trap 2% of the outgoing radiation. It is subject to law of diminishing returns. Each additional gigaton of CO2, has less radiative impact than the previous one.

As the CO2 in the atmosphere increases, plants would require less water to grow.  Doubling of CO2 will result in 70% increase in plant growth.

The increase in sea level in not primarily driven by glaciers melting but by increasing ocean temperature. Sea levels have been rising since the last ice age and they are 425ft higher today. In the past century it has risen less than 8”.

Only 12% of the solar energy absorbed by the solar cells is converted to electricity, the rest of the energy absorbed in radiated as heat thus contributing to global warming.

In the past several years the average global temperature has decreased.

Some geoengineering solutions

200million tons of supher di oxide go into the atmosphere each year. All this stays in the troposphere. If  100,000 ton can be relocated to the higher troposphere, it can completely reverse the effects of global warming.

Solution1: 18mile long hose to the sky through which liquefied Sulphur di oxide can be sent up. This project would cost $20M with an annual operating cost of $10M.

Solution2: Simply extend the smoke stacks of some strategically located coal plants. A handful of coal plants emit more than the required amount of Sulphur to cool the planet. If we can extend their smoke stacks to 18miles it will be emitted in the stratosphere.

Some other geoengineering solutions are discussed in the book. What I found most appealing is that these don’t require large scale behavioral changes from us, which many people consider quite impractical and much more cost effective than most conventional solutions.

The question is, why aren’t these options more widely discussed? There must be a catch, right. What are your thoughts on this?

In the past couple of weeks many people wrote to me about this book. My friend Archana presented it for my birthday. On the same day my library delivered a copy. Another friend, Meenks wrote to me from the US recommending the book. He had read reviews of the book and thought I would like it. It was almost as if the entire universe was conspiring to make me read the book

All my friends were right, I loved the book. Although I was not mistaken in my initial assessment of the style of writing, I enjoyed it all the same.

 It is the story of Shiva, a Tibetan immigrant who comes to Meluha (mainland India) to escape from the incessant tribal wars in his countru. In Meluha he is given Somras which makes his throat turn blue. Thus he becomes Neelkanth, who the Meluhan legend says would be their savior. The story is about Shiva’s discovery of his true destiny. In the course of the story we are introduced to many mythological characters in their new Avatar. Brahma the Meluhan scientist who invents Somras, the drink of immortality. Saptharishis are selected students of Brahma to whom Somras was first administered. Lord Rama, an ancient king who broke the caste barrier to the access to Somras.  He laid down a social order which ensured that everyone got equal opportunities regardless of their birth.  Sati, the daughter of the current Meluhan king, Daksha. Manu, a Pandya kind from the land of Tamil sangam!!!!

I know, I know. I can hear many of you are screaming in protest at the blatant disregard for actual historical facts

Amish, the author the book has the imagination of a child. It is innocent, idealistic and without boundaries. And just like a child his story is very simplistic. It lacks the nuance and depth of an adult’s book.  Have you seen the cartoon network adaptation of Ramayan in English? This book gives you a similar feeling.  Shiva comes across as a cool dude of the new millennium who loves marijuana and has modern views of equality, justice and democracy.  Sati is the feminist of the last millennium, intelligent, well read and a warrior and yet willingly submissive to the rules of her tradition. She silently bears all the insults hurled at her and raises her voice only when someone insults Shiva. Towards the end Shiva resembles Ahoka, filled with grief for having fought a pointless war. There are also references to the ideological clash of communism and democracy.  The book is the first of a trilogy and the climax is cleverly crafted to make you long for the next one.

The Immortals of Meluha is very much a children’s book at heart. I thoroughly enjoyed it. Those of us who are closet comic book readers, who can still experience the magic of Astrix, Archie and Bhagavatam will understand its appeal.